MARKETS
- Global markets had mixed performance in February, as U.S. markets declined on concerns over growth, inflation, and tariffs, while European and Emerging Markets, led by China were positive. The global equity index (MSCI ACWI IMI) decreased by -0.60% in February and is up +2.73% YTD. The S&P 500, which tracks large cap U.S. stocks, decreased by -1.30% in February and is up +1.44% YTD. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks domestic small cap stocks decreased by -5.35% in February and is down -2.87% YTD. The International developed equity index (MSCI EAFE) increased by +1.94% in February and is up +7.30% YTD. The emerging markets index (MSCI EM) increased by +0.48% in February and is up +2.28% YTD.
- In February, bond yields decreased across maturities; the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 32 bps to 4.51%, the 10-year yield decreased by 34 bps to 4.24%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 23 bps to 3.99%.
- The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index, which is a measure of U.S. Bond prices, increased by +2.20% in February and is up +2.74% YTD.
ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL HEADLINES
- U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 2.3%, according to the “2nd” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2024 GDP increased by 3.1%.
- The February Services PMI (formerly Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) increased to 53.50% from 52.80% in January. This represents expansion and is above market expectations of 52.60%. The February Manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.30% from 50.90% in January. Per the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a reading above 50 is considered economic expansion and below 50 is considered economic contraction.
- February non-farm employment increased by 151,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on March 7th, 2025. In February employment increased in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Average Hourly Earnings (wages) increased by 4.0% year-over-year in February..
PERFORMANCE UPDATES
- The Equity Fund decreased by -1.71% in February and is up +1.72% YTD. The Bond Fund increased by +1.87% in February and is up +2.40% YTD. The Stable Value Fund was up +0.17% for February and is up +0.38% YTD. The Northern Trust Global Sustainability Index Fund (GSIF) decreased by -1.25% in February and is up 1.06% YTD.
- The Balanced Fund decreased by -0.23% in February and is up +1.41% YTD. The Target Annuitization Date TAD 2025; TAD 2030; TAD 2035; TAD 2040 TAD 2045 and TAD 2050 returns were +0.13%, +0.18%, -0.11%, -0.43%, -0.70% and -0.97% respectively for February and up +1.16%, +1.92%, +2.10%, +2.03%, +1.98% and +1.92% YTD.