Market Update from CIO Lan Cai, CFA – March 2025

MARKETS

  • Global markets had mixed performances in March: U.S. markets declined on concerns over growth, inflation, and tariffs, developed international markets were slightly negative, and Emerging Markets were positive. The global equity index (MSCI ACWI IMI) decreased by -3.95% in March and is down -1.32% YTD. The S&P 500, which tracks large cap U.S. stocks, decreased by -5.63% in March and is down -4.27% YTD. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks domestic small cap stocks decreased by -6.81% in March and is down -9.48% YTD. The International developed equity index (MSCI EAFE) decreased by -0.40% in March and is up +6.86% YTD. The emerging markets index (MSCI EM) increased by +0.63% in March and is up +2.93% YTD.
  • In March, bond yields increased across maturities; the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield increased by 8 bps to 4.59%, the 10-year yield decreased by 1 bps to 4.23%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 10 bps to 3.89%.
  • The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index, which is a measure of U.S. Bond prices, increased by +0.04% in March and is up +2.78% YTD.


ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL HEADLINES

  • U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 2.4%, according to the “3rd” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2024 GDP increased by 3.1%.
  • The March Services PMI (formerly Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) decreased to 50.80% from 53.50% in February. This represents expansion and is below market expectations of 53.00%. The March Manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.00% from 50.30% in February. Per the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a reading above 50 is considered economic expansion and below 50 is considered economic contraction.
  • March non-farm employment increased by 228,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on April 4th, 2025. In March employment increased in health care, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Average Hourly Earnings (wages) increased by 3.8% year-over-year in March.


PERFORMANCE UPDATES

  • The Equity Fund decreased by -3.61% in March and is down -1.95% YTD. The Bond Fund decreased by -0.05% in March and is up +2.36% YTD. The Stable Value Fund was up +0.22% for March and is up +0.60% YTD. The Northern Trust Global Sustainability Index Fund (GSIF) decreased by -4.81% in March and is down -3.80% YTD.
  • The Balanced Fund decreased by -2.40% in March and is down -1.03% YTD. The Target Annuitization Date TAD 2025; TAD 2030; TAD 2035; TAD 2040 TAD 2045 and TAD 2050 returns were -0.59%, -1.41%, -1.99%, -2.31%, -2.58% and -2.85% respectively for March and mixed +0.56%, +0.48%, +0.08%, -0.32%, -0.65% and -0.98% YTD.